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Market Outlook

The popular averages bounced back to the upside on Friday. The fourth quarter GDP estimate was not revised, however corporate profits lessened. Consumer sentiment was reported down but not as low as expected. The Fed chair said gradual raises in interest rate targets could begin later this year after cautious consideration. The prices of crude oil and gold fell on Friday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). As were the cases in October and December, the SPY price in early January fell under its 50-day moving average and then rebounded sharply back above. However, the fall back through it in mid-January briefly briefly caused concern. The price that week approached the levels of the mid-December and early January lows. The sharp bounce above that level on January 16 with supportive trading volume was a positive signal.

   After weakness in late January, the launch on February 2 from the 200-day-moving average to then close above the 50-day-moving average was most encouraging. After a slight dip on Febraury 4, the price shot nicely above the 50-day MA on February 5 to further inspire confidence. Despite drops on February 6 & 9, the SPY price held at that MA and then bounced nicely above on February 10, leading to a record closing high on March 2. After a correction earlier this month, the SPY price getting nicely back above its 50-day moving average began to appear encouraging. But the fall back under on Wednesday painted my weekly outlook arrow into a yellow cautious mode. The white line in the chart has provided support since early February. It stopped the decline on Thursday. We’ll be keeping an eye on it to see if it continues to hold back the bears.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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