The popular averages closed slightly down, essentially flat, on Thursday. Pundits blamed afternoon selling on the postponement of a House of Representatives vote on a bill to replace Obamacare. New home sales increased more than expected in February. Unemployment claims grew last week. Meanwhile the prices of crude oil and gold fell on Thursday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). The post-election up-trend resumed during the first week of the year before the price stabilized in a narrow range. Then on January 25 the SPY reached a record high before some retracement. The up-trend picked up significantly as February began, which eventually led to a number of record closes including March 1.

   The white horizontal line in the chart indicates a level that was resistance in mid-February and then support in late February. It proved again to be support in recent weeks. However it was decisively pierced on Tuesday. The 50-day-moving average provided support on Wednesday, which may be a good sign. Moving back above my white line would be an even better one.

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© Curt Renz

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