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Market Outlook

The popular averages closed mixed on Friday. Consumer sentiment improved in June by more than expected. Stocks in China took a big hit. Greece and its creditors remain in disagreement. The US stock markets appear to be paying undue attention to a country that accounts for only 1.8% of the EU economy. Meanwhile the price of crude oil fell while gold rose on Friday.

    Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). After a correction early in March, the SPY price getting nicely back above its 50-day moving average began to appear encouraging. But the fall back under on March 24 was disconcerting.

   The push upward on April 2 was welcome, leading to a move above the 50-day moving average on April 6. Getting back above that MA on April 8 and remaining above during the rest of that week was encouraging. I liked seeing the 50-day MA provide support on April 14, followed by a continuation upward on April 15 in shooting distance of an all-time high. The sharp fall back under that moving average on April 17 may have seemed worrisome, but it was not enough to alter my outlook. The nice moves above the 50-day MA toward a record closing high on April 24 made that appear to be a sound decision. However, the fall back through that MA on April 30 did create a bit of concern.

   The choppy action during early May might have been unsettling, but the closing price remaining above the 50-day moving average kept me optimistic. The record closing high on May 21 may have validated that mindset. The approach on May 26 back toward the MA caused a slight frown, but the rebound on May 27 while the Nasdaq set a record elicited a big smile. Recent oscillations around the 50-day MA may have seemed confusing. In the process record highs were set on Monday and Tuesday by some of the indices. The correction seen the last few days has not been enough to alarm me.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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© Curt Renz

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