The popular averages closed to the downside on Monday amid continued light trading volume. The Chicago Fed national activity index dropped well into negative territory during August. Meanwhile the prices of crude oil and gold rose on Monday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). After all-time closing highs were achieved in late May and early June, the 50-day moving average proved supportive during a dip on June 29, then the SPY moved a little higher the next three sessions. The SPY slipped back under the 50-day MA on July 6 before returning above on July 7 and jumping to record closing highs on July 14, 19, 20, 25, 26 & August 7. However, the dips under the 50-day MA on August 10 & 17 made me cautious.

   The SPY’s hop above its 50-day MA on August 27 restored all of my outlook arrows to green. End of quarter window dressing by money managers could disrupt the flow of funds. It’s important for the SPY to remain above its 50-day MA.

Updated following  each market day

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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

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August 16, 1994

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