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Market Outlook

The popular averages closed narrowly mixed on Friday, but up for the week despite huge drops on Monday and Tuesday. Crude oil prices continued the surge upward that began on Thursday. Core inflation was barely existent in July, while personal income and spending were up. The US trade deficit narrowed a bit in July. Consumer sentiment has decreased slightly this month. The Fed vice chairman indicated that the FOMC still could raise interest rate targets some time this year. Meanwhile, the price of gold rose on Friday.

   Tesla Motors (TSLA +2.3%) shares were boosted by news it obtained agreements with two lithium hydroxide suppliers to provide that necessary chemical to Tesla’s battery Gigafactory, which is now under construction in preparation for the needs of the proposed mass market Model 3 car. On Thursday TSLA gained 8.1% following the Consumer Reports review seen in the video below.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). The price attained a record level in late May before falling under the 50-day moving average in early June. A mid-June rally above that moving average fell apart later in June. That led to a two-week test of the 200-day moving average. A mid-July rally again pushed the price above the 50-day MA before a collapse back to the 200-day MA later in July. Here in August the price had been oscillating between those two moving averages until the drop last week on Thursday.

   The larger scale waffling in the SPY price over the last few months took an ugly turn to the south amid heavy trading volume late last week and earlier this week. SPY price drops in June and July presented short-term buying opportunities. The August capitulation appeared to have gone beyond reason and appears to have presented a similar opportunity. The failed rally attempt on Tuesday was concerning, but the huge rebound on Wednesday that continued on Thursday was heartening. That was enough to restore my outlook arrows to green.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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© Curt Renz

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