The popular averages continued to the upside on Wednesday. The price of crude oil rose substantially on news of OPEC agreeing on the need to reduce production. Durable goods orders were flat in August, but that was better than expectations. Meanwhile, the price of gold fell on Wednesday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500. The big jump following the Brexit scare in late June led to a more gentle rise beginning in mid-July resulting in several SPY records. Then came the huge drop on September 9 through the 50-day moving average amid heavy trading volume. This resulted in a big gap, i.e. the session’s high was significantly lower than the previous session’s low. The large jump in the VIX (volatility index) appeared to be a sign of panic. The sharp fall through the 50-day MA would not ordinarily be seen as a good sign.

   The strong bounce on September 12 tickled the 50-day moving average but failed to fill the gap. Since then there have been sharp moves in both directions creating a couple of smaller gaps. The SPY tickled its 50-day MA on Wednesday at the day’s high but closed just under. It will have to stay above for me to consider repainting any of my outlook arrows green.

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