The popular averages closed narrowly mixed on Monday amid reduced trading volume. The Chicago Fed national activity index has become slightly negative, essentially flat. Meanwhile the price of crude oil fell while that for gold rose on Monday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). It achieved a record closing high on May 15. Then the panic selling on May 17 apparently due to political rather than business concerns resulted in the SPY falling through its 50-day MA. On May 18 calmer thinking seemed to prevail as the SPY first leapt back to the 50-day MA and then showed follow-through.

   The gap created between the SPY’s May 17 low and the May 18 high was nicely filled on May 22. All-time closing highs were achieved on May 24 & 25, June 1, 2, 13, & 19.

   The SPY’s 50-day moving average was penetrated on June 29, yet the price closed above and then moved a little higher the next three sessions. The SPY slipped back under the MA on July 6 before returning above on July 7 and jumping to record closing highs on July 14, 19, 20, 25, 26 & August 7.

   The SPY remaining beneath its 50-day MA is keeping my shorter term outlook arrows a cautious yellow.  My three-month outlook arrow remains green as I am expecting a strong finish to the year.   

Updated following  each market day

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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

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August 16, 1994

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