On Friday the popular averages finished to the upside virtually at their highs for the day, on heavy trading volume as monthly and LEAP options expired. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 attained all-time intraday and closing highs. Consumer sentiment has unexpectedly quieted this month. Meanwhile the price of crude oil fell while that for gold rose on Friday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). The SPY’s hop above its 50-day moving average on August 27 restored all of my outlook arrows to green followed by only a few days of short term caution. November began what is normally the market’s best performing grouping of six successive calendar months.

   The recent parade of record SPY highs has been encouraging, including the all-time intraday and closing highs on Friday. The hunger for stocks remains unabated. However, many investors have been sitting on the sidelines, and the last among them may soon join the party due to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Once they have feasted, that could put in place a market top.

Updated following  each market day

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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

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August 16, 1994

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