The popular averages continued well to the upside on Thursday. The optimism regarding regional manufacturing has surged for Chicago area purchasing managers. US unemployment claims rose last week. Meanwhile, the prices of crude oil and gold fell on Thursday.
Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500. April had a couple of flat periods with internal vibrations. The bounce on May 6 from the 50-day moving average was welcome, but the fall back under on May 13 renewed concern. Then there was a nice hop back above that moving average on May 24 with some continuation afterward.
The selling that began on June 9 painted my weekly outlook arrow a cautious yellow as the 50-day moving average was approached. That moving average was breeched intraday on June 14 and the SPY price closed just under on June 15. That colored my monthly outlook arrow yellow. The fall further under on June 17 turned my three-month outlook arrow yellow.
The rise on June 20 brought the SPY price back near the 50-day moving average and it inched above on June 21. It remained stuck there on June 22, keeping my technical outlook arrows in a cautious mode. The jump above on June 23 briefly pointed them upward. However, the plunge on June 24 and in response to the unexpected Brexit quickly repainted them yellow. The rebound this week back above the 200-day moving average repainted them green. The continuation above the 50-day MA on Thursday bodes well.
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