The popular averages closed to the downside on Thursday. The Philly Fed index has jumped upward this month. Housing starts grew in December, while building permits were essentially flat. Unemployment claims were reduced by more than expected last week. Meanwhile the price of crude oil rose while that for gold fell on Thursday.


   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). It meandered during the summer while setting record highs, before taking a dive from late October into early November in apparent fear of a Trump presidency. Then it recovered virtually all of that during the first four days of election week including the day after Mr. Trump’s election. The 200-day moving average provided support on November 4, then the 50-day MA was surpassed on November 9.


   The SPY zoomed upward to record highs in early December after a pause in late November from the post-election rally. Another pause occurred in late December, much of which could have been due to tax strategies. The uptrend resumed with the new year. We are still in the initial half of the six-month period that is normally the strongest for the stock market. All of my outlook arrows are still green as the technical signs remain promising.



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© Curt Renz

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