On Friday the popular averages soared upward to close at their highs for the day. A Fed report indicated puzzlement over the low unemployment rate coupled with modest inflation. Meanwhile the prices of crude oil rose while that for gold fell on Friday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). November began what is normally the market’s best performing grouping of six successive calendar months.

   The strong upward move of the SPY in 2017 with acceleration last month was due for a correction, and it was hit by one in early February. Apparently the expectations of volatility and rising long-term interest rates compelled some traders to sell. This got the snowball rolling with enough speed to grow into an avalanche.

   The economy is strong with no signs of a coming recession. However, inflation and interest rates have become concerns. The SPY sharply rebounded from its 200-day moving average on February 9, then continued upward every day last week. Then this week it fluctuated around its 50-day MA, before cruising upward on Friday. The escape above that level restored my outlook arrows to green.


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© Curt Renz

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August 16, 1994