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On Friday the popular averages resumed this week’s steep plunge. Investors are apparently concerned over lack of concrete evidence that Trump’s Tariff War is cooling. Non-farm payrolls increased by less than expected in November, while the unemployment rate remained low. Consumer sentiment remained high in November. Meanwhile the prices of crude oil and gold rose on Friday.


   Above is our 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). Slippage by the SPY during early autumn is rather common, especially when moving into mid-term elections in which members of Congress in the same party as the president are viewed as vulnerable. October bottoms and volatility are not unusual, but they were especially pronounced in this year of divisive partisanship. This was amid the backdrop of enhanced uncertainty due to tariff wars and rising interest rates.


   During October the SPY fell sharply under its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Not good. However, the rebound from the October low was encouraging, especially the move back above the 200-day MA. Although the gap created between November 6 & 7 may have been cause for concern, and indeed it got filled on November 12, while the 200-day MA gave way.


   December is usually a strong month for the stock market. The SPY price gap between November 19 & 20 was filled last week. That was a welcome sign. The drop since early October has skewed surveys of professional and individual investors toward highly bearish which inspired a high put/call ratio. That’s a bullish contrarian indicator. The surpassing of the 50 and 200-moving averages on Monday seemed reassuring, then came panic selling during the rest of the week. Perhaps they are coming to a realization that the emperor has no clothes.


















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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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