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The popular averages continued to the upside on Friday. The Leading Economic Indicators rose in July. Consumer sentiment has fallen this month. Meanwhile the prices of crude oil and gold rose on Friday.

Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). Its 200-day moving average essentially provided support several times this year. During the intermediate periods the SPY’s 50-day moving average was overcome multiple times before the price was thrust back below.

The successful tests of the SPY’s 200-day MA indicated it was going through more of a grinding correction than a collapse. The strong upthrust from it on May 4 was encouraging enough to turn my weekly outlook arrow green. The jump above its 50-day MA on May 9 repainted the other arrows. The dip on May 29 held above the 50-day MA, then the uptrend resumed.

The slips in June seem to have been due to trade war fears. The upward trend during much of July seemed to have ignored those concerns. However recent see-sawing made me somewhat cautious. If the rise continues next week, I may bring out my green paint cans.

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DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

SMO - 1994 AUG 16

Updated following each market day

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Coin Toss - 2012