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On Thursday the popular averages closed mixed. Producer prices deflated a bit in January. Macroeconomic reports delayed due to the shutdown that were released on Thursday included: December retail sales unexpectedly dropping dramatically, and November businesses inventories decreasing a bit. New unemployment claims unexpectedly rose last week. Meanwhile the price of crude oil rose while that for gold fell on Thursday.

Above is our 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). The stock market drop that began in early October came amid a tariff war and rising interest rates. It skewed surveys of professional and individual investors toward quite bearish stances. The result was a number of days of panic selling in December.

The December market plunge occurred amid dysfunction in the US government climaxing in Trump’s partial shutdown of the government when Congress did not include his southern border wall in a funding bill. However the SPY has been rising this year. The surpassing of its 50-day moving average on January18 amid increased trading volume was encouraging. It has remained above on a closing basis ever since, however a stall has been playing out in the vicinity the 200-day MA since February 5.

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DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

Updated following each market day

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