The popular averages headed well to the downside on Friday morning after Trump announced tariffs on goods imported from China. Most of the losses were eventually erased, nevertheless the closes were still down. Industrial production and capacity utilization lowered in May. Consumer sentiment and the Empire State index have both improved this month. Meanwhile the prices of crude oil and gold fell on Friday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). Its 200-day moving average essentially provided support several times this year. During the intermediate periods the SPY’s 50-day moving average was overcome multiple times before the price was thrust back below.

   The successful tests of the SPY’s 200-day MA indicated it was going through more of a grinding correction than a collapse. The strong upthrust from it on May 4 was encouraging enough to turn my weekly outlook arrow green. The jump above its 50-day MA on May 9 repainted the other arrows. The dip on May 29 held above the 50-day MA, then the uptrend resumed. The slip on Friday was not enough to get me concerned.

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© Curt Renz

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SMO - 1994 AUG 16

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