On Thursday the popular averages plummeted amid the president’s proposals for more tariffs against China, which could lead to a trade war. More turnover of White House advisers may have exacerbated concerns.

   The Leading Economic Indicators pointed upward again in February. Markit’s manufacturing and services outlooks both remain optimistic. New unemployment claims unexpectedly increased last week. Meanwhile the price of crude oil fell while that for gold rose on Thursday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). The strong upward move of the SPY in 2017 with acceleration this January was due for a correction, and it was hit by one in early February. A repeat was attempted while February transitioned into March followed by another one more recently.

   The economy has been strong without signs of a coming recession. However, since March 12 the SPY has been tumbling with minimal rest. The steep fall on Thursday amid fears of a White House inspired trade war has caused my weekly outlook arrow to be painted red.


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© Curt Renz

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