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On Monday the popular averages traded in narrow ranges before closing to the upside. Tech stocks boosted the Nasdaq Composite. Second quarter earnings reports have been generally good so far, with a great many more due out this week.

   Above is my three-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). During the early days of May, Trump fanned the flames of a tariff war, inspiring some investors to heed the long established advice to sell in May.

   The May dive was interrupted for a few days during mid-month before crashing to a bottom on June 3. During May both the 50 and 200-day moving averages of the SPY were punctured. Then the early June rally pushed the SPY back above both of them. However the intra-day reversal on June 11 suggested a need for temporary caution. After that the 50-day MA provided support amid choppy trading, until the nice price jump accompanied by strong volume on June 18 followed by an all-time high on June 20.

   June 21 was a quarterly Triple Witching Day for the expiration of options and futures. A run-up into one of those typically leads into a week that begins with some profit taking. Then during the sessions before Independence Day the SPY returned to hitting record highs. After a couple of days of stumble, the SPY resumed its climb leading to all-time intraday and closing highs mid-month before a choppy downward drift.

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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

Updated following  each market day

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