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On Friday the popular averages turned sharply back to the downside. Throughout most of the session they were attempting to recover from the post-opening lows before facing an onslaught of selling during the final half hour returning them near the day’s lows. The late drop did not appear due to any fresh news. Options related manipulation may have been a factor. Also many traders likely did not want to risk being in stocks on Monday in the face of possibly more negative coronavirus news over the weekend. This could have triggered a cascade effect due to stop limits set by day traders. In the meantime the house agreed to the senate’s bill providing fiscal relief due to the coranavirus. Economic concerns due to the cornavirus are business shutdowns and job losses along with the effects on consumer and business spending.


  Above is my three-month chart for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). A Santa Claus rally kept going into the new year. It seemed encouraging that the late January dip was halted by the 50-day moving average. On February 19 the SPY attained all-time intraday and closing highs.


   Then came the coronavirus inspired collapse beneath the 50-day MA on February 24 with continuation leading to penetration of the 200-day MA. During the first week of March the SPY gyrated dramatically above and below that moving average, before resuming the steep plunge amid heavy trading volume and a soaring volatility index (VIX). Then came a sharp rebound rally during the middle three days of this week, before the drop on Friday.


 











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© Curt Renz

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