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The popular averages slipped to the downside on Friday, a monthly options expiration day. Boeing (BA -6.8%) was a drag amid concern that it may have misled investigators regarding the 737 Max. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -6.2%) also weighed on the averages following the recall of baby powder.

   Above is my three-month chart for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). After a rally to all-time high in late July, President Trump escalated the trade war, and the SPY dropped hard into early August. For a while afterward the SPY was buffeted about by the US and China bickering about tariffs. Then the SPY ralllied and pierced its 50-day moving average to the upside on September 5th. After a few days of digestion, the upward trend appeared to be confirmed on September 11 & 12.

   Then a Near Eastern oil related conflict led to the SPY dropping hard on September 24, but the 50-day moving average provided support for a while. The SPY fell under that MA on October 1 with continuation on October 2, but held above its 200-day MA on October 3 before shooting upward.

   The climb continued on October 4 to a close back above the 50-day MA, before a slip back under on October 7 and a bigger drop on October 8, followed by a bounce on October 9. The rise continued on October 10 with a close on the 50-day MA, then well above on October 11 and even higher Tuesday and Thursday.

   Bearish sentiment remains high while bullish sentiment is low as we move further into what is normally a strong quarter for the stock market. It could continue to climb a wall of worry.

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Market Outlook

ETF Holdings       Stock Holdings

       None                     TSLA                                     

                                                                               

© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

Updated following  each market day

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DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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